Chemicals: The macro outlook weakened in the fourth quarter, and the asset "bubble" is about to burst
In the first three quarters, the domestic macro economy performed well as a whole, not only achieving the goal of a soft landing of the economy, but also in the context of continuing to maintain a prudent monetary policy and the full implementation of various structural adjustment policies, the GDP growth rate rebounded slightly.
In the first three quarters, the domestic macro economy performed well as a whole, not only achieving the goal of a soft landing of the economy, but also in the context of continuing to maintain a prudent monetary policy and the full implementation of various structural adjustment policies, the GDP growth rate rebounded slightly. Data show that in August 2017, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year in real terms, and from January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year. On the whole, the production growth rate of high-energy-consuming manufacturing industries continued to decline, but high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries maintained rapid growth rates, and related investments also accelerated to emerging industries. The growth rate of entrepreneurship and innovation investment continued to increase, and with the transformation and upgrading of the industry, the Chinese economy accelerated the transformation of new and old kinetic energy.
In the chemical industry, due to the full implementation of specific measures of environmental protection supervision policies and the full clearance of outdated production capacity, the prosperity of some industries has rebounded. In addition, the demand in emerging fields has increased significantly, especially in the coal and steel industries in the first half of the year due to industry production capacity, The rate and value focus have been continuously revised, and the profitability of the company has been continuously improved. The bull market created by the black products in the first half of the year has led to a collective turnaround in the industry and a good situation. Coupled with the support of the destocking cycle, the operation of the company has been improved. Overall improvement.
However, in the traditional peak season of gold, nine silver and ten chemical industries, the market trend is not satisfactory. Since there is no obvious bright spot in the growth of domestic demand, and the environmental protection policy storm has calmed down, the operating rate of some industries has gradually recovered and even reached the high level over the years, but the actual consumption did not show a significant increase. There are signs of growth, so black products bear the brunt of the sharp dive, but the industry operating rate is still at a high level, and it is likely to enter the destocking cycle again in the future. Therefore, the overheating phenomenon of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, which is not conducive to the clearing of outdated production capacity, and may lead to the failure of the phased results of the supply-side structural adjustment. Therefore, in the second half of the year, the chemical industry as a whole is in the "cooling down" stage, and the inflated bubbles generated by various "conceptualized" speculation will be digested by the market itself.
From the perspective of the external environment, the expectation of the United States to shrink its balance sheet continues to increase, but the actual economic recovery momentum is still weak, and the risk of impact on emerging economies still exists. Other major foreign trade areas such as Europe are facing the exit from the monetary easing cycle. The global spread will continue to put pressure on the domestic and foreign export situation, and the growth rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter.
It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to run at the bottom of the L-shape, while emerging fields are not enough to support effective demand and can occupy a major proportion. The structural imbalance in traditional fields is difficult to be effectively reversed in the short term. The specific industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial added value data and will likely show a weak situation. In the absence of new kinetic energy and bright spots in consumption growth, the growth rate of investment in the chemical industry will continue to decline and is likely to continue negative growth. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the focus of the chemical product market will drop to seek bottom support, and it is likely that the black line will still lead. And it is expected that the overall destocking cycle will be relatively prolonged, the expected benefits of enterprises in the industry will decline cyclically, and the price bubbles and artificially high profit margins in some industries will return rationally and be effectively compressed.
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